President Trump says the US doesn’t want to go to war with Iran but if it has to, it’d lead to “Obliteration like you’ve never seen before.”
A brief History lesson
On May 8, 2018: Trump announces that the U.S. will pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a deal that Iran would keep its levels of Uranium below such that it can’t create Nuclear weapon with them in exchange for relief from sanctions.
Iran denied any wrongdoing and initially continued to comply with the deal, while it urged the other European signatories of this deal to work towards saving it.
Over time: Iran’s economy suffers – currency value plunges, cost of locally produced staples such as eggs and meat soar – till Iran can’t take it again so…
June 17, 2019: Iran announces that it will breach uranium enrichment levels under the 2015 deal by June 27.
June 20: Iran shoots down a U.S. drone worth over $100m, it says was in its airspace but the U.S. provides evidence it was over international waters.
Trump almost orders a retaliation strike but reconsiders after he is told 150 lives would be lost.
June 22: President Trump issues new sanctions on Iran in retaliation for the air strike.
Iran’s response: President Hassan Rouhani, said “The actions of the white house show that it is mentally retarded”
Why it matters
With a 50% chance that conflict might soon break out between the US and Iran, a conflict would disrupt energy supplies causing oil price per barrel to rise up to $100 per barrel, currently, oil price is at ~$60 per barrel.
It appears U.S. sanctions are losing their bite as Trump’s administration punitive actions on China, Iran and a growing list of countries doesn’t seem to be working.